Sustainable Aviation Fuels:

A new route
to net zero
for the aviation
industry

In just 100 years, the aviation industry developed from the first powered flight to a global network connecting over 1.5 billion people.

Historically, global air traffic has doubled in size every 15 years since 1977.

While emissions per passenger have decreased by 54% since 1990, reducing emissions intensity is not enough.

The target is net-zero emissions by 2050. But the industry won't get there unless it changes the fuel used to power its aircraft.

Source: Waypoint 2050

The next 30 years will be dominated by the dual pursuits of lower costs and reduced carbon emissions.

Sustainable Aviation Fuels (SAF) offer a potential solution to both. SAF is a biofuel typically produced from sustainable feedstocks.

It has similar properties to conventional jet fuel but with a smaller carbon footprint.

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Sustainable Aviation Fuel production capacity by 2050

The global aviation industry will need to source 330-445 million tonnes of SAFs per year - and make technological and operational improvements to hit net zero by 2050.

Source: Waypoint 2050, Assuming the Emissions Reduction Factor (ERF) is increasing from 70% to 100% by 2050, 90% of fuel replacement by SAF by 2050.

How much fuel are we talking about?

445 million tonnes is over 119 billion U.S. gallons - or more than:

180,000

Olympic-size swimming pools

Current SAF production is less than 0.01% of global jet fuel consumption

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Current hydroprocessed esters and fatty acids (HEFA) production will get the aviation industry to only around 6%-8% of required capacity.

HEFA is typically made up of:

Waste
vegetable oils

Distilled
corn oil

Inedible
animal fats

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How the aviation industry can
deploy sufficient
SAF to meet
climate ambitions

Boosting

production of SAF by moving to Alcohol-to-Jet (AtJ) and Fischer-Tropsch (FT) processes.

The Fischer-Tropsch process converts carbon monoxide and hydrogen into oils or fuels that can be substituted for petroleum products.

Alcohol-to-Jet is a process for the conversion of alcohols to an alternative jet fuel blendstock.

Increasing

capture of carbon dioxide-before it enters the atmosphere-through improvements to supply chains, production processes, and technology.

Carbon capture, use, and storage technologies can remove carbon dioxide emissions from the atmosphere.

Building

new SAF production infrastructure, such as renewable fuel refineries built close to the feedstock supply.

The average SAF refinery will be just 0.001% the size of current oil and gas refineries

Rapid technology developments will reduce the price for SAF, while increasing carbon costs will make the emissions reduction offered by SAF more valuable.

By 2050, analysis by ICF expects the net cost of SAF to be within the historical cost range of fossil fuels.

Scenario 1 > Scenario 2 > Scenario 3 > < REPLAY

In the future, SAF production will come from 5,000-7,000 new renewable fuel refineries with an average capacity of ~100,000 tonnes.

While over 90% of oil and gas production is located in just 22 countries, the SAF industry will need to leverage feedstocks across almost every country, improving energy security, independence, and resilience for many nations.

ICF is a leader in sustainable aviation consulting.

Our solutions combine aviation, technical, and operational expertise to help you meet net-zero targets.

If you're a government official or a representative of airlines, airports, regulators, or OEMs, we hope this resource helps you better understand the value of Sustainable Aviation Fuels.

Download our full "Fueling Net Zero" report to learn more:

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Sustainable Aviation Fuels: A new route to net zero for the aviation industry

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A new route
to net zero
for the aviation
industry

What challenges
lie ahead for the
aviation industry?